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Okay, this year it looks like there weren't deaths at Wall*Marts during their Black Friday sales, but there was pepper spray, knives, and guns. Occupy Oakland had a murder -- but, statistically, I don't know that that makes Occupy Oakland significantly more dangerous than the rest of Oakland . . .
A fair comparison of violence levels seems like it would be very tricky. You'd need to first compare the violence level of the Occupy movement camps to a baseline level of violence in their respective communities. And you'd need to do the same thing for the Wall*Mart Black Friday sales, compared to the baselines in THEIR communities. I don't have either the data or the statistical analysis skills to do that. I'd LOVE to be able to claim that "Black Friday is more dangerous than Occupy Wall Street," but I have no ability to get the numbers to determine if that's so.
A fair comparison of violence levels seems like it would be very tricky. You'd need to first compare the violence level of the Occupy movement camps to a baseline level of violence in their respective communities. And you'd need to do the same thing for the Wall*Mart Black Friday sales, compared to the baselines in THEIR communities. I don't have either the data or the statistical analysis skills to do that. I'd LOVE to be able to claim that "Black Friday is more dangerous than Occupy Wall Street," but I have no ability to get the numbers to determine if that's so.
(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-25 10:16 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-25 11:09 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-26 01:06 am (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-26 04:33 pm (UTC)I think it's a terribly bad comparison, and this all makes me very sad when something as important as peaceful assembly is turned into a base mockery of itself.
(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-26 05:11 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-26 05:06 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-27 04:08 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-27 05:28 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-27 05:56 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-11-28 04:42 pm (UTC)...if you ran the numbers you are talking about, and then said "Black Friday is more dangerous than Occupy Wall Street," citing your numbers as proof, I'd call that dishonest and fraudulent.
All the numbers would substatiate is that the change (increase) in violence caused by Black Friday is greater than the change (increase) in violence caused by the Occupy movement - and then only for one chain / city.
If you look at it in terms of absolute violence (and if it's my skin, I damn well will look at it that way for my own protection), then the Occupy movement would track as more dangerous*... and, if we were honest with ourselves, driving a car or crossing the street would be *way* *way* more dangerous than either.
...but (assuming I actually ran the numbers), if I said, "Crossing the street is scientifically proven to be more dangerous than the Occupy movement," I'd still consider myself to be committing fraud...
... Because the word 'danger' does not have a sufficently precise** definition to be used objectively in this way. You can make the statement that Black Friday is more dangerous, if you believe it, and even explain your reasoning... but you can't claim you have scientific evidence or objective proof, because the statement itself is too imprecise, and therefore can't be proven one way or another.
Yeah, I know... this kind of fraud happens all the time in our society, and generally isn't taken as such. And, I know that you're not committing it - after all, you haven't claimed scientific veracity, merely used the ideas inherent in statistical analysis to explain your reasoning...
...but, it's awfully close, and I find this kind of fraud, prevalent as it is, to be a much greater threat to society and to me in particular, than any attack on the Occupy movement for being 'violent.' So I feel obliged to point it out - or at least safer if I do.
Kiralee
*I'm basing this only on the evidence you yourself have presented in this post, as I don't have enough independent data points on either Occupy Oakland or Black Friday at Wal-mart.
**speaking of precision... I have to hand it to Occupy Harvard for presenting a white paper with their demands. It's not a great marketing tool, but it's *GREAT* statesmanship... even if the white paper itself is badly thought out, at least they are trying.
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