Lis asked a question about the poll showing Prop 8 pulling ahead in California:

[xiphias]

So, as you are all aware, in California, there is a ballot initiative to forcibly divorce a bunch of my friends, and forbid them from marrying the people they love and want to spend their lives with, and tear apart and destroy families.

And, while polling all along had shown that most Californians were opposing such blatant evil, a recent poll showed that 47% of Californians SUPPORTED the destruction of families, with only 42% opposing it.

Lis asked me a question about that, and I just found out the answer.

She asked me, "Are cell phones included in that most recent poll?"

No. No, they weren't. All the polls which showed the forces of sanity and goodness ahead DID include cell phones; the ones that show reactionary hatred ahead don't.

Okay, folks on my friends list: how many of you don't own a land line? Or know people who don't own a land line?

Of the people who don't own a land line, are there any generalizations you can make about them?

In California, there are a heck of a lot of CPO -- Cell Phone Only -- voters. And CPO voters skew younger and more liberal.

Nationwide, the exclusion of CPO voters skews polls about 3% toward McCain. And, in California, it's likely higher.

The difference between including and excluding cell phones may be 5% or more in CA. So 42% to 47%? Which is within the margin of error of the poll? And is probably skewed 5% more conservative than it ought to be?

Means absolutely jack shit.

There's no usable information there, not for either side. It's entirely noise. It tells nothing either worrisome OR encouraging. It's just noise.

Comments

[awfief.livejournal.com]

yes, but we should have our guard up anyway......

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

Absolutely. There's nothing in that poll to inspire confidence, either, and DEFINITELY not complacency.

[supergee.livejournal.com]

In 1936 Literary Digest predicted that Alf Landon would whup FDR because their telephone poll said so. In those days most of the people who could afford phones were Republicans.

[holyhippie]

AFAIK, my older brother (mid-40's) and my father-in-law (late 70's) do not have land lines.

I do have a land line, but it probably would be more simple if I didn't. There's not much it does for me.

[linenoise.livejournal.com]

I am an eligible voter in CA, I am voting *against* Prop 8, and I'm CPO. So there's a data point in favor of your reasoning.

[theclamsman.livejournal.com]

Like I told you yesterday(?), there are a lot of conservatives up here. We've got the Republican Governator, after all. And I think the conservatives are going to come out for this one, because they are PISSED about Obama and if Obama gets them out to the polls, then you can be sure that if they feel like they can't stop Obama, they will vote on this single issue and fuck everything up.

I don't know how cell phones would even count in a poll. I would think that the calls would go out to peoples' land lines only, though...I don't think the pollsters run on completely random calling and that there's a method and a means to their polling that might exclude cells.

While I wouldn't give up hope, I would say "guard up" like your first commenter.

[xiphias.livejournal.com]

Yes, the conservatives are going to vote for it. And there are a lot of them

The liberals are going to vote against it. And there are a lot of them.

The question is the middle -- the people who are persuadable either way.

The cell phone issue is a significant one. The SurveyUSA survey -- the first, and so far, only -- poll that showed Prop 8 ahead was land-line only. The Field Poll uses the telephone numbers listed by the voter on his or her registration, whether it's cell or land-line, and showed Prop 8 comfortably losing. The Public Policy Institute of California is also land-line only, and was showing the Prop 8 likely to lose.

The SurveyUSA poll showed only one significant difference from other groups, demographically: they showed younger voters SUPPORTING Prop 8, while the previous surveys showed them OPPOSING it. They are also the group most likely to be cell phone only.

The question of how to count cell phones and cell phone only users is a vitally important one, hotly debated in the polling community. There are a lot of models being thrown around, and a lot of different ideas. It's not clear yet how it will all shake out. But, in general, like I said -- nationwide, a poll that excludes cell phones will skew about 3 points more conservative, and it may be greater in California.

[theclamsman.livejournal.com]

I think that when things like this come up, the conservatives are going to be even more forceful with their ads and the push to get the vote out, AND it may convince some people on the fence who might believe that these things should be taught by the parents on their own time, not when the kids are in first grade.

But you see, the anti-gay people are already taking the above linked story and running like Hell on it, re-fashioning the article and using it as one example (I forget what stupid group it was...VoteYesonProp8? I forget...). I also saw the second of two Yes on 8 commercials tonight on TV somewhere:



*eyeroll* Stupidity abounds. But the commercials are airing more frequently now...before I'd only seen the old couple whose daughter was gay/a Vote No on 8 commercial.

[theclamsman.livejournal.com]

By the way:

http://politics.mync.com/2008/09/are-pollsters-missing-cell-phone-only-voters/

Coker of Mason-Dixon says it's horsehit and Gallup says that they do include CPO. The guy from the other pollster makes good points about the demographics of the CPOs, too.

[tylik.livejournal.com]

No land lines here. A little bitter that we buy DSL through the phone company.

And we're a couple of freakin' socialists, really. (Huh. Okay, historically socialists does not necessarily equal socially liberal. Let's just say in our cases gay marriage looks a little conservative, though obviously a great idea.)

[dancing-kiralee.livejournal.com]

There have always been polls that are too close to call.

Kiralee

[paper-crystals.livejournal.com]

No land line. But most of NYC people in their 20s seem to lack one.

[flouritephoenix.livejournal.com]

I know one person under the age of 35 who has a land line. I only know 2 people on Facebook who say that they are conservative. I have 443 friends.