The theories on Who Did It, because it's time for wild speculation before the facts are in!

[xiphias]

Once we know things, we can't just spout off ignorantly. So if I want to spout ignorant opinions, I need to do it now, before I learn things.

I'll LJ cut it, though, just so nobody has to see it who doesn't want to.

Okay, there are three major possibilities for who was behind the Boston Marathon bombings. Islamofascist terrorists, domestic anti-government militia terrorists, or some lone crazy person.

And, of course, it might be none of these.

But let's look at them.

First: Islamist terrorism. What are the arguments in favor? The Boston Marathon is an international event with high visibility. It's an American tradition, it's a soft-target crowd, it is symbolic. It's a good symbolic strike against America.

Second: domestic militia terrorism. Arguments in favor? Largely the date: Patriots' Day is a celebration of Lexington and Concord -- it's the Monday of the week in which April 19th occurs. April 19th is an important day to anti-government militia terrorist organizations: it's not only "The Shot Heard 'Round The World", starting the American revolutionary war, which they identify with, but it's also the day of the Waco compound raid, and of the Oklahoma City bombing. An additional date-based argument is that April 15th is Tax Day.

Third: individual crazy person. Arguments in favor? If the devices were black-powder explosives loaded with ball bearings, which is what I heard Somewhere From Somebody Probably On The Internet (so you KNOW it's accurate), that's a pretty easy bomb to make. This wasn't an attack that needed any great deal of planning, preparation, or co-ordination, and it is exactly the kind of high-visibility thing that crazy people who want to hurt people seem to like to do.

I don't have any actual reason to prefer one of these theories to another, but I feel that domestic militia terrorism is the most likely, because it best fits my preexisting confirmation bias.

However, I wouldn't be too surprised if it turned out to be a two sixteen-year-old boys from the suburbs. Because from Leopold and Loeb on forwards, if you're looking at a murder or murders with absolutely no rhyme or reason behind it, you're usually looking at a teenage boy or two. There are exceptions (Brenda Ann Spenser, who didn't like Mondays), but that's the way to bet.

And, of course, Islamist terrorism is on the table, although, to me, it feels like the least likely of the three possibilities, probably because of my aforementioned confirmation bias.

But I think we should also consider alternative theories.

The first one I mention is one that I wrote as a comment to Andrew Greene on Facebook -- the possibility that this was just someone who forgot that their explosives were armed when they threw them out in the trash cans. My mother doesn't believe that one, though, because they were in two different places, and she figures that if SHE was cleaning out her backpack and throwing out explosives, she'd just have dumped them BOTH in the SAME trash can.

So I'm going on to my second theory, which is that it was Wayne LaPierre, who wants to demonstrate that taking away people's guns won't make anyone safer, since people can kill people in other ways.

The third theory is, of course, that it was The Amuurikan Gummint, who did this in order to take people's guns away. This theory is incompatible with my Wayne LaPierre theory, of course.

Any other theories anyone wants to float out there? I haven't figured out how to tie in the Illuminati or the lizard people who live inside the hollow earth.

Edited to add: At the advice of folks in comments, I've changed the word "Islamofascist" to "Islamist". Also, the description of the explosive devices as built on a plan that's common in Afghanistan and Pakistan increases the odds of it being Islamist, and decreases the odds of it being some kid from the suburbs, although all those options are still on the table.

Comments

[chanaleh.livejournal.com]

The Illuminati! Sabotaging Patriots' Day!

[ceo]

Just as a note, "Islamofascism" is a slur used exclusively by right-wing whackjobs, and using it serves no purpose other than making yourself sound like one.

[sethg]

Some Tories who still have a grudge about that whole American Revolution thing. (Blame Canada!)

Disgruntled Yankees fans.

[quietann.livejournal.com]

I'm betting on a random nutjob or two. But it will be a long time before we have any idea, I think.

Now it *may* be that said nutjobs are affiliated with the Tea Party or extremist Muslim groups...

[cbpotts.livejournal.com]

I am pretty sure it is the struggling TV networks, who want people inside on the couch and not doing foolish things like Running! Outside! Without screens!

And I have it on pretty good authority that all the major networks are headed up by Lizard People Vaguely in Disguise

[wcg.livejournal.com]

Dr. Doofenschmertz finally got one past Agent P?

More seriously, I think it's some kind of domestic terrorism. But we shall just have to wait and see what the investigators come up with.

[temima.livejournal.com]

Somebody somewhere is going to try to pin it on Jewish people. No, I'm going to look for examples. It will just remind me that people do this sort of crap with a straight face.

[bradhicks.livejournal.com]

The MO matches an attempted bombing of a Martin Luther King Day Parade in Spokane two years ago, and over the last week it's been pretty clear that some kind of new gun-control bill is going to pass, so my prime suspect is (or was) some kind or right-wing militia or right-wing lone wolf, like Eric Rudolph.

I say "or was" because there was a report, late in the day yesterday, that police are looking for a young black or dark-skinned man in a hooded sweatshirt who was seen, 5 minutes before the first detonation, trying to push his way into a restricted area while wearing (or carrying, not sure) a black nylon backpack that matches the (possible) description of the other bomb(s). If that report is accurate, it makes the motive more likely to be revenge for American killings of Muslim civilians in Iraq, Pakistan, and/or Yemen.

But those are only the two leading causes on a list of over half a dozen that I compiled right after the attack, none of them all that certain. Or, for that matter, none of them even likely; there are so many possible suspect groups that I wouldn't rank any of them above 30% or so. I don't think they're going to solve this one by researching the motive angle, especially not without a credible claim of responsibility. I think the FBI is almost certainly focusing few or none of their resources on why did it happen, and most of their resources on canvasing stores in the region that sell black powder and/or ball bearings looking for a bulk purchase or repeat purchases.

[jordan179.livejournal.com]

I don't see anything wrong with the term "Islamofascist." But you're leaving out one obvious suspect: North Korea.

I don't actually believe that North Korea did this, beause this isn't their normal target or M.O. However, they were (and still are) in a confrontation with us when this happened, so I wouldn't entirely rule it out.

[papersky.livejournal.com]

Why hasn't somebody claimed responsibility, if it's a terrorist group?

The point of terrorist groups blowing things up is to terrify people, not to terrify them randomly but to make them sufficiently terrified of them that they will give them their objectives. This doesn't work if you don't know who did it. Therefore, terrorist groups claim responsibility. Which makes the "lone nut" theory more plausible.

If you want crazy theories, how about Unionist kneecappers from Northern Ireland doing it to get revenge on Boston for funding the IRA? (But they'd have claimed responsibility.)

[adrian-turtle.livejournal.com]

It might have been domestic terrorism, where "domestic" is related to the meaning in "domestic violence." What if it was somebody stalking his ex, horribly bitter because she likes running so much more than she likes him? It's not political terrorism, and there's no organized group to claim responsibility.

But it is still terrorism, in the larger sense.

[(Anonymous)]

You've left out a strong hypothesis: This is just viral advertising for a new Aqua Teen Hunger Force movie.